Modern Outlook

Movie Theaters: Blockbusters or Bust

December 30, 2021
Modern Outlook
Movie Theaters: Blockbusters or Bust
Show Notes Transcript

In this episode of the commute series we talk about the bleak future for movie theaters and what drove them to this reality. This conversation was sparked by the new Spider Man movie being in theaters. We talk through how cool it used to be to go, why it isn't that cool anymore, and the only possible thing that can save movie theaters.  

Feel free to  email me at eddie@yourwm.com with any feedback, questions,  or ideas for future episodes. 

hey guys what is going on? Welcome to an episode of the commute. A little holiday edition. Now I am, I'm currently driving home, it's Christmas day that I'm recording this. So Merry Christmas, everybody. Happy New Year. Happy Holidays, whatever you're celebrating. I hope you've surrounded by loved ones friends, family. Have a good time, lots of food, lots of dessert. Wherever you guys do your holiday traditions, I hope you guys have a good time doing them. And you're just surrounded by people you love. So Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas. I'm excited to get back and spend two of mine. Nothing too crazy on the we never go really too crazy on Christmas. Or I mean, or any holiday really, we just have the family over small family like seven people or so seven, eight people. So all the family over and they'll come over around two o'clock or so. And we'll just kind of sit around talk and have some beverages and eat some dinner. Watch them on Thanksgiving, watch some football, but Christmas, whatever is on TV. And just have a good time just enjoy each other's company don't get don't get around to being together to too often other than the holidays just because of schedules and, and stuff like that. So it's always nice when we get together and everyone can see each other. So I'm definitely look forward to it. But I got another 40 minutes or so of the drive. So I figured I'll come on here. Record a little episode of the commute, and talk about whatever for a couple minutes. Whatever comes into mind. So right before I turn on the camera, I was listening to another podcast. And they were talking about the new Spider Man movie. And all the traction that is getting within the theaters now. And and so I guess the reason it's a big deal that they're on pay the Spider Man movies on pace to be the first billion dollar movie in 2021. Most likely in 2022 as well, definitely in 2020. I'm not sure really what's coming down the pipeline. As far as movies are concerned, it feels like there's really not that many big ones happening. Which is why I wanted to come on here and talk about what I think the future of the music industry has its music, movie industry has in store. It's something where before COVID I feel like there was never a world where you just weren't going to have movie theaters, right? Like there was always going to be something to see. There's always going to people I wanted to go there. The streaming services didn't have the rights to the movies right away at that moment. So you had that time where movie theaters were a big blockbuster movie come out pretty much any Marvel movie any Star Wars, and even some smaller movies would get some decent traction at the movie theater because that's where you would see now coming through COVID 2020 2021 entering 2022 I don't think that holds true anymore. I think anyone would agree with that. I haven't been to movie theaters in a very, very long time. And I like the Spider Man movies. And I probably still won't go to a theater for it. I'll wait till it comes out on like a streaming service. And that's not because I don't like movie theaters because I do I think it's a really cool idea. It's community. You're sitting there with people that also want to be in that movie theater, watch the same movies you it's like a shared experience. You get to spend 50 bucks on popcorn and soda. I don't know what who wouldn't want to do that. I just sounds like too much fun. They should make that not possible. Charge even more, increase the sales a little bit more. But I think the reason movies are gonna fade and nothing movie theaters will fade and nothing you'll still have every once in a while you'll still have your like, small, small movie theaters and local towns that get enough traction and stay afloat. But for the most part, I think you're gonna see these you can see movies over time just fade to being non existent. And then the streaming services like they already are, like HBO Max seems to have a lot of them will just pick up the movie right from where it's at and go from there, or Disney plus or you name it, they'll pick up the movie and just go from there won't even be a question. So when do we see this trend happening? Right at COVID. Right at COVID. We saw the idea that we all need to go to the movie theaters for whatever movie we want to watch. And there's a couple of dominoes that fell I guess to get to this point one obviously being COVID just mentioned it to the rise of streaming services and the quality of TVs that's already been there. But the rise of streaming services and how easy they are and how I guess flu they are in the movie experience like you're not missing anything by watching it at home. Like all you're missing in my opinion, is you watch a movie at home and it's just not as lap And that's it. I know they're not, it's the same thing you're not, it's not as loud. You're not watching on a big screen, that's way too big for you anyway, that's the same thing. And I don't even like looking at the big screen. And I don't, I'm not a big fan of how loud it gets in there. I kind of I kind of like controlling the volume on TV, I'm starting to sound a little bit older. But that's just how I feel. So I'm not big again. And I'm nothing against the movies, the movie theater. But I think it's just more comfortable to sit in my home and watch it when I want to, I can pause it, I can just stop watching if I hate it and waste 20 bucks to go watch. So it's it's definitely something where the comfort is a huge domino that fell where movie theaters can't provide that to like your own living room gain and streaming services are obviously in your living room. Now, the second domino that kind of fell in my mind that pushed movie theaters to being or about to be obsolete, was right when you no longer had to wait for movies to come out either on DVD or streaming surface services or whatever it is. Because you guys, you guys, remember, when the movie would drop in theaters, it'd be like four or five, six months, maybe a year. So when they like you were able to actually get your hands on like a DVD or like it would come out on a streaming service. But it was such a long time that like by the time you really want to see the movie. By the time it came up on DVD or streaming, you knew everything about it. So you must always go to a theater and see it first. You might as well just go because you already know everything about it. The time you go watch it in the comfort of your own home. And then if you're buying the DVD or whatever it is, you're just buying it because you really like the movie and want to watch it again. It's not in theaters, and I was really that entire business. So once HBO Max came out, and I feel like HBO Max really been the only one that's done this on with multiple movies of just like, okay, cool. We have this movie. And it's in the theaters, but also at the soons that releases, you're gonna have it on HBO, Max, have fun watching it. As soon as that happened, it was done for movies, it was done. There's no reason to go there. There's no reason minus like the big blockbuster movies. And that's where I'll move into next. I think the only future movie theaters have if it even can keep them afloat because I'm not sure how the margins work on movie theaters. I'm not I know, they make a lot of like, they make their money on concessions. That's why they're so expensive. But I'm not sure how the other margins work. The only way these movie theaters stay afloat is through huge blockbuster releases. Like they need Marvel movies every month, they need Star Wars movies every month, they need these massive, massive movies to come out where everybody wants to see them. And it's been like a big long way, like the Avengers movies at the end end game like those kind of those type of events where everyone goes, everyone wants to see it. And it's like the cool thing to do for that weekend. But other than that, no one's gonna go see, like just a random film with like, just like, okay, actors, and it's just something that they want to put together like, no one's gonna go see those smaller time movies, it's going to be strictly blockbuster events that happen. And that's what you're seeing with Spider Man right now. I mean, so it's a big blockbuster movie. Everyone's going to see it. And they had said for streaming services, it won't be out. It's not going to be strictly exclusively movie theater release at first. And that's how you have to do it if you're these movie companies. I mean, you're these. Yeah, I guess production, like companies. You have to keep it to movies only. And the movie theaters have to keep half the hope that you keep it to movies only at the beginning. Or otherwise. You're not no one's gonna come in to watch. They're just gonna watch it from home. Like yesterday. I watched the movie. Don't look up. It's on Netflix, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jonah Hill, Jennifer Lawrence. All these great actors, amazing actors on Netflix Netflix film that produced it, put it out on their service, not a single thought of putting into theaters and the movie was awesome. The movie was unreal. You don't need movie theaters anymore. You don't need those productions. Those production companies. Netflix can do this by themselves Disney. Obviously we know Disney can do it by themselves, but they own the production companies, HBO Max can do by themselves. Apple can do this by themselves. Amazon, you name it. They can all do by themselves movie theaters and the production companies that go with Moon movie to movie theaters. One of the production companies had to move into and start working with Netflix in them which I'm assuming they already have. But movie theaters are like they have to hope that they just get exclusive Elise's otherwise done for, done for. And that's sad. I mean, it is a bummer, right? Because, uh, you remember like way back. I mean, everyone remembers like movie theaters especially going up I was like, the thing to do is I'm going to movie sign, I'm gonna go spend my 20 bucks my parents gave me and it's gonna be a good time I'm not, I'm gonna have some stories to tell. And granted, there was no stories to tell, you just saw some person who said hi, I was like the craziest thing you've ever experienced. But it was it was a thing that everyone loved to do. And unfortunately, it's it's gonna, it's fading and nothing. And the push the digital obviously, like that's the streaming service, the overarching theme as opposed to digital. It's, I mean, they can't, they won't stay in flow for too much longer. And it's a bummer, it's a bummer, there's a dying business, you saw the rally with like the AMC meme stock over the past couple months to a year, so same time as GameStop. And that was that was not people investing in the belief of a company that was people investing and one the joke of it and to to squeeze out hedge funds. And we'll get into that a different time. But even then when that like when AMC rose in value, like billions of dollars on market cap, that was not because people believe in the future of movie theater, or they want to save movie theaters. And even AMC knows, and I'm assuming they get my opinion. But I'm assuming they know what the future holds. They're gonna try to find ways to get around this like they had the past where you can spend like 10 to 15 bucks a month you get X amount of free movies and you get like a percentage off concessions, those things is not going to be popular enough to drive in regular traffic and even then, say it's 15 bucks a month for that. It doesn't it doesn't cut it doesn't cut it. Price wise you need something much more expensive with the margins are running, and they just don't have it. So unfortunately, the future movies has their their future lies solely in the hands of blockbuster movies. And I just don't think there's enough to keep people coming and I don't think movie theaters after a few years here are really going to be a thing unfortunately, but we could all watch from streaming services and a comfort of our own home. So that's the bonus so if you're a big movie theater person I'm sorry for your loss in a couple years it's for the better get a big TV guess surround sound you can make your own experience and you should be fine. But like I said guys, Merry Christmas Happy Holidays. Still some time out for myself but I hope you guys have a really really good day and enjoy your time so I'll catch you guys on the next one. Securities offered through securities America Inc member of FINRA slash SIPC. advisory services offered through securities America advisors Inc. Wealth Management Services and securities America are separate entities. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the author and may not actually come to pass. This information is subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions and should not be construed as a recommendation of any specific security or investment plan. Past performance does not guarantee future results.